There is widespread suspicion that the unbalanced schedule in the National Hockey League has allowed some teams to inflate their point totals by feasting on weaker teams in their own division. The thirty teams in the NHL are divided into two conferences of 15 teams each, and within each conference, they are further divided into three divisions comprised of five teams each. All 30 teams play 82 games over the course of a season. But they play 32, or about 40%, of those games against just four other teams in their division, while they play the remaining 50 games, or about 60%, against the 25 other teams throughout the league. If a team plays in a division featuring relatively weaker teams than are found in other divisions, the suspicion is that it gains easier points, while teams in stronger divisions play nearly half their games against stronger opponents. Observers have therefore tended to discount the stellar point totals of teams like Detroit, who play in a division with only one other team currently (and just barely) in a playoff qualifying position, and take a premium view of teams like Calgary who currently lead a division with three and sometimes four other teams in a playoff qualifying position. But the notion that good teams look even better by feasting on their weaker division mates does not stand up to scrutiny. In the Western Conference, six teams have generated 1.2 points per game or more in matches against their divisional rivals. In that group of six—the most successful divisional-play teams in the conference—there is one last place team, two fourth place teams, and one third place, one second place, and only one first place team. In the Eastern Conference, only two teams have generated over 1.2 points per game against divisional rivals, but nine teams have generated over 1.1 points per game. Among those nine, there are two last place teams, two fourth place teams, two third place teams, one second place team and two first place teams. The average divisional position of the most successful divisional-play teams across the league is lower than 3rd place. This seems to suggest a seriously counter-intuitive result. It appears that it is weaker teams that feast on stronger teams in their division. Indeed, league-leading Detroit is the third-worst team in their conference when it comes to games against divisional rivals, and Pittsburgh, but one win away from leading the entire Eastern Conference, is the very worst team in their conference in games within divisions. Meanwhile, Phoenix, currently in tenth place in the conference and well out of a playoff position, leads the West in divisional games, while Chicago, with the third-worst record in the West, is not far behind with the fifth best divisional-play record. In the East, Atlanta, with the third-worst record in the conference, is the fourth best when it comes to divisional play. In fact, Detroit, first in its division, first in its conference and first in the league—and long suspected of feasting on weaker divisional rivals to boost it’s high point total—has a losing record against its own division, while Chicago, last in its division, third from last in its conference, and a woeful 24th in the 30-team league, has an impressive winning record in games in the same division—the fifth best divisional-play team in the league. The Vancouver Canucks, for those keeping score at home, have the second best divisional-play record in the Western conference, and the fourth best record in the league. The disparity between teams’ divisional play is wide enough to invite some speculation as to why some teams, otherwise very strong, are weak against those teams that know them best, while other teams, being generally weak, can on the other hand be very strong against teams they know well. There is no discernable correlation positive or negative between generally well-performing teams and teams that perform well in their division. Ottawa leads the Eastern Conference in points and also tops the Eastern Conference in divisional play, and Dallas, second in the league overall in points, is the fifth best team in the league in divisional play. The difference may come down to coaching styles. Some coaches may look at the unbalanced schedule featuring nearly 40% of their games against just four other teams, and focus their study and tactics on those four other teams, while other coaches may take a less focused approach. In terms of overall performance, neither strategy seems to confer an obvious advantage. The difference in coaching styles, and the vastly different results when it comes to wins against divisional rivals compared to wins against teams outside one’s division, may on the other hand play a huge role in playoff results. Currently, Nashville sits in eighth spot in the Western Conference and if the season ended tomorrow, they would draw divisional rival Detroit in the first round. Nashville is the third best team in the West in games against divisional rivals, while Detroit is the third worst against divisional rivals. This little-known statistic may set the stage for a monumental first-round upset. Vancouver, currently in sixth spot, would face divisional rival Minnesota, currently in third spot. But Vancouver has the second best divisional-play record in the West, while Minnesota is fifth from the bottom in divisional play, possibly suggesting another upset. Alternatively, if Detroit draws any team outside its division in the first round of the playoffs, it is most likely to sweep them in four games straight, having compiled a stunning 35-8-3 record against teams not in its division.
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