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Greenhouse gases
Shattering the myth of the anti-green highway
A highway building lobbyist argues that removing all roads will encourage huge car use, while paving every square inch of the city will reduce it
By Jeff Morrison,
Executive Director, The Road and Infrastructure Program of Canada
(TRIP Canada)
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It has become almost an accepted truth that building additional highway capacity is bad for the environment. Many people believe that the more highways that we build, the more cars and trucks we will put on the roads, and therefore the more greenhouse gases will be emitted. The catch is, has anyone actually taken the time to study whether this is the case? Is there any truth to what has come to be accepted as a truism? Until recently, the answer is no—no empirical research had ever been conducted into this question. However, two new reports, one groundbreaking in terms of its research focus, helps to shed some light on this important question.
In December 2006, the Conference Board of Canada (whose board of directors include CEOs of Symcor Inc, Banque Nationale du Canada, Xerox Canada, ATB Financial, Hydro Quebec, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, IBM Canada, 3M Corp, Agricore, Agrium, FedEx, and so on. The private company is “affiliated with” The Conference Board of the US, which includes CEOs from Dow, Unilever, Siemens, Alcoa, etc—ed) released a new research report entitled “Build It and Will They Drive?” The purpose of this report was to identify the determinants of “induced travel,” which is defined as the increment of new vehicle travel on a particular roadway. The report was groundbreaking in that its methodology was based on two never-before used sets of data: one, a series of socio-economic variables; and two, use of the Canadian Vehicle Survey, which is a new Statistics Canada measuring tool. The results were surprising, even to the researchers who produced the report. (No doubt!—ed)
No relationship found?!?!
What this Conference Board report discovered was that there is no statistical relationship between induced travel and the capacity of highways available. In other words, there is no truth to the notion that more highways equals more cars which equals more greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, the Conference Board found that the largest determinant of travel demand is population density (i.e. growth in urban and suburban development), followed by average wealth – the notion being that as Canadians become richer, they can afford the costs associated with driving additional vehicles. Other factors having an impact on driving demand are population growth, past driving habits of individuals, and the price of gasoline relative to the price of local transit. The Conference Board looked at the influence of an increase in the number of lane kilometers available to the local population, and concluded that increased highway capacity had no influence on induced demand.
This report alone therefore suggests that building more highways does not lead to an increase in greenhouse gases. (We can’t make this shit up—ed) But in addition, a new report released in January 2007 by McElhanney Consulting Services Ltd of Surrey, BC, makes a case that additional highway capacity can play a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by reducing overall highway congestion.
Ah yes, the idling argument
The McElhanney report used computer modeling and real-life traffic counts to estimate vehicular emissions, including greenhouse gas emissions, at various speeds—these emissions included carbon dioxide, volatile organic compounds and nitrous oxides. The report concluded that emissions are at their highest when traffic moves at speeds between 5 and 15 kms per hour—standard stop-and-go congestion speeds. At these speeds, carbon dioxide emissions in a typical car are close to 40,000 grams per mile travelled. However, when speeds increase to approximately 50 to 55 kms per hour, emission levels drop to approximately 16,000 grams per mile traveled. What this suggests is that stop-and-go congestion is responsible for emissions that are approximately three times higher than cars travelling at more regular speeds. Therefore, the clear implication is that a reduction in congestion is desirable from a greenhouse-gas reduction stand-point. If we assume for a moment that driving habits are not likely to change in the immediate term, the logical choice for reducing congestion is to increase highway capacity—and as the Conference Report suggests, this can be done without any accompanying induced demand that would negate any effects of lower congestion.
The implications of these reports are clear—give us everything we want and shut your mouths. (Sorry, I added that, it carries on here—ed)—the old stereotype that more highways equal more pollution is unfounded. Instead, a strong case can be made that additional highway capacity plays a key role in reducing congestion, which in turn has a clear role to play in reducing greenhouse gas and other pollution emissions. This is an important conclusion for policy makers at all levels, particularly as Canadians demand action on reducing greenhouse gases, while at the same time demand safer, more reliable transportation. Added highway capacity would seem to achieve both goals. (Natch—ed)
Contact Info: Jeff Morrison
(613) 236-9455 (ph)
jeff@cca-acc.com
Write him.
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