Visions of future schisms foretold

An analysis of poll-by-poll results indicates how new Vancouver coalitions might break

byReed Eurchuk <reurchuk@republic-news.org>

A poll-by-poll analysis of the recent Vancouver municipal election identifies questions and possible conflicts that could arise over the next three years. Every political grouping, except the most authoritarian, is a coalition of people representing a fairly wide variety of political agendas and priorities. These coalitions are inherently unstable. In 2002, the NPA fractured between a conservatism that focused on social questions and a more traditional business conservatism that emphasized policing (a “crackdown”) as a prelude to a new round of downtown development.

With 20/20 hindsight it is clear now that the coalition cobbled together by COPE in their 2002 victory did not hold because the diversity of political agendas and approaches were ultimately incompatible. The two largest groupings—the “Classics” and the “Lites”—both refused to compromise. With these examples so close at hand, lets look at the recent results to glean omens of future conflicts within the coalitions.

The first thing that becomes apparent is that the old east-west boundary dividing Vancouver in two no longer holds any water. Now voting patterns follow a north-south pattern. The NPA has a hard time nearly everywhere north of 12th avenue, except in the extreme northwest of the city. Even in poll 133, bounded by Waterloo and Trafalgar on the west and east, and 6th and 12th on the north and south, the NPA finished a distant third of the three major parties.

Follow Main Street south from Broadway, and you pass through six different polling areas. In the two most northerly polls, Cope and Vision Vancouver split the victory between them, Vision doing only slightly better than COPE, while the NPA finished a distant third. But by poll 52, Vision pulled significantly ahead, while the NPA was quickly catching up to COPE. And at poll 77, bounded by King Edward and 41st Avenue on the north and south, and Cambie and Main on the west and east, the NPA candidates had an average of 100 votes each more than either the Vision or COPE candidates.

Another trend illustrated by this trip down Main Street, and apparent in many polls in the city, is that, as the proportion of votes going to the NPA rise, support for COPE crumbles, while Vision is less directly impacted. Sometimes Vision's votes diminished proportionately to COPE's declining votes, while other times, Vision was less impacted.

This pattern, especially pronounced in the conservative southeast corner of Vancouver, gives hints of conflicts within Vision over the next three years. The strongest Vision candidate in almost every poll in this section of the city was George Chow, its most conservative councilor. In some polls, if you took Chow and Raymond Louie away from Vision, Vision candidates polled proportionately less than did COPE candidates. So if Chow turns out to be vocal and an activist on council, he could pull Vision further right.

The sterile inner city suburbs of Vancouver—Coal Harbour and Yaletown—were the site of an interesting anomaly. The rule throughout the city held that Vision and COPE voting went broadly together, i.e. usually where Vision came in first in city council voting, COPE came in second. Vice versa, where COPE finished first in gross council votes in a specific poll, Vision came in second. In many polls less, than 100 votes separated the five Vision candidates from the five COPE candidates. But in Yaletown, polls 15 and 16 (a triangular area bounded by Smithe, Pacific and Granville), Vision triumphed, followed by NPA, with COPE a distant third. Coal Harbour polls 3 and 10 went to Vision with COPE again third, and poll 9 went to the NPA, but with Vision following them closely, and again COPE far back in the pack.

Politically such anomalies can be either an insignificant eccentricity or an emergent trend in formation. Keep in mind these two areas are centres of downtown conservatism. These are the people who recently re-elected that provincial Liberal quack Lorne Mayencourt, and here they are throwing down with Vision.

All three parties face major challenges over the next three years. NPA mayor Sam Sullivan seems to have carried the traditional conservative NPA vote, while also organizing a middle of the road NPA team with a social conscience. Sullivan needs to placate this business and tax oriented, and socially negligent, constituency, while at the same time continuing his and former NPA mayor Philip Owen's (his mentor), socially-minded conservatism.

Meanwhile, COPE needs to break out of its Commercial Drive, Downtown, Kits bastions of strength and appeal to Vancouver's Chinese community.

But Vision has the toughest job. Vision must continue to play to its supporters in the development community (where it was number one), while at the same time retaining the NDP-lite crowd. To its left, COPE will ride it mercilessly, to its right, the NPA holds the reigns of power, and so is positioned to do the work the local real estate crowd needs done, and not just talk about it.

Meanwhile, within Vision, George Chow may be the man to watch. The chameleon-like Raymond Louie may have the youth, the experience and the looks, but Chow could hold the real power. And after three years of watching him, we know Louie, like a moth attracted to light, always moves to work in tandem with the powerful.

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