STV result was perfect

A near miss for the STV system gives a great boost to the better MMP system

by Kevin Potvin <kpotvin@republic-news.org>

This paper published articles both in favour of, and opposed, to the BC-STV referendum question posed in the May 17 election. We also ran many letters to the editor, each one eloquently arguing its case, as many for as against. I myself was asked to defend my No position against Julien West of the Yes committee on Rafe Mair’s radio show on AM 600, but during the show, changed my mind and endorsed the Yes position.

In short, I was effectively persuaded to both points of view at the same time, which is to say, I was stuck. So about a week before the election, I stopped asking myself which way I would vote, and instead imagined what the best outcome for the province would be. When I considered the STV question from that angle, I had no doubt about the answer—and the answer told me why I was having such a hard time choosing a side for myself, or advocating one side or another in this paper and elsewhere.

The best result for BC is exactly what happened: a very near miss. But that’s a hard result to advocate for. In essence, I had been struggling with the problem of how to advocate citizens vote in favour of a proposal, but not so much that the proposal actually carries.

The threshold for carrying STV was a 50% majority Yes vote in 48 of our 79 ridings, and overall, a 60% majority Yes vote. The results were a majority Yes vote in 77 ridings, but about a 58% Yes vote overall. The outcome passed one test, but just barely failed the other.

This was absolutely the best result because, as even strong advocates of STV admitted, it was not the best imaginable electoral system for BC. One of the strongest arguments advocates of STV were able to make was that, while it isn’t great, it is certainly better than the current first-past-the-post system, and we may not get another chance for dumping that system.

My feeling was that we would get another chance, but only if there was a strong, but not quite strong enough, momentum in favour of changing the current system. If STV came close to, but did not succeed, in passing, there would remain a strong momentum for change. I was right. Already, leaders of both main parties in BC have committed to working on electoral reform, both citing the strong majority of citizens who desire it. But they won’t be pushing STV, since that system was rejected in the referendum. The only other system that could possibly get as much or more public support is the Mixed Member Proportional electoral system. And though this system was not offered on the referendum, it is now the most likely system this province will adopt if we do have change.

Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) is used widely around the world and would suit British Columbia well with perhaps a few local adaptations. It is for one thing simple. It was the only other system the Citizens’ Assembly considered for this very reason. And in fact 80% of submissions to the Citizens’ Assembly advocated for MMP, mostly because it’s workable and simple.

In general, the MMP system is one where some of the MLAs sitting in the legislature will have been voted there directly by constituents, just as we have it now, and some will have been sent there by their parties who were awarded such seats based on the percentage of the popular vote the parties won in the election. To keep the same number of MLAs overall, every two ridings in BC would be collapsed into one, so that half of MLAs would be elected by constituents, while the other half would be forwarded by parties.

For example, in the most recent election, the NDP won 34 seats and garnered 41% of the popular vote. Under one form of MMP, the NDP would have won, say, 17 of the riding seats, while their 41% of the popular vote would, proportionately speaking, entitle them to 34 seats overall; they would be awarded, therefore, 17 of the party seats for a total of 34. The Liberals might have won 24 constituency seats, and with 46% of the popular vote, deserve 37 seats overall, and so would be awarded 13 more seats. The Greens, who would have won no constituency seats, would be awarded 8 seats in respect of their nearly 10% of the popular vote.

That’s if we choose a 50-50 split between constituency seats and party seats. Some places employ a different mix, sometimes with 75% being party seats, and sometimes with 33% being party seats. The balance can be struck according to the degree of local representation and size of seats that works best for BC’s unique geography and culture.

The one big knock on MMP is that it seems to give a lot of power to parties who get to decide up to, or even more than, 50% of the members who will sit in the legislature. That’s not the big problem it at first appears to be. Parties would be required to publish before the vote the list of those members they would send to the legislature. In some MMP systems, voters get two votes: one for their local representative, and another for the party list of their choice. Voters will have looked over the party’s lists and will have voted according to how good the candidates look. The party that seeks to elevate mere hacks would not do well.

There are other possible innovations, including a US-style primary voting system, where citizens select who will comprise the party list of candidates that will be sent to the legislature if that party is allotted more members.

The primaries could even be open to everyone, not just party members, so that NDP-leaning voters could decide who is on the Liberal party list. At first you might think they would strategically force a bunch of losers on to the Liberal list, but then they must also calculate the risk of some of those succeeding in anyway being sent to the legislature, and so they would be more inclined to select people more to their liking. In that strategic balance, citizens might elect from party lists the most attractive and capable representatives.

Other innovations can be added as time goes on, tinkering with a good system to make it better. MMP is a good electoral system for BC, and citizens should pressure the NDP and Liberal parties to make sure we have it installed in time for the next election.

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