Liberals jump ship

20 missing Liberal MLAs for May's election is not, it turns out, such a big number considering how many they elected. What is missing is a budget, as well as any NDP complaints about that

by Andrea Reimer

British Columbia's 37 th Parliament officially came to an end this week not, as one might hope, with the passing of a budget, but rather with a rare show of public camaraderie between long time political foes Joy MacPhail and Christy Clark. The high five the two exchanged on their way to a final appearance on BC's political stage gave the last day of the BC Liberal's government the air of a high school graduation.

Judging by the column inches, talk shows and TV news coverage she received this month, I'd say MacPhail won the prom queen crown. She deserves it for her spirited efforts in opposition, but then Clark earned the majority of her admirers during her time in opposition as well. It was in their respective roles in government that they were less than endearing. Unfortunately for Clark, in politics you're only as good as your last gig and the last four years have felt unusually long, especially for those of us at the receiving end of Clark's handling of the education portfolio.

The Legislature's most prominent alpha females (and I mean that in a nice way) aren't the only provincial politicians calling it quits: 2005 has a particularly large graduating class with 20 MLAs leaving the governing side of the house. The day after the Legislature dissolved, Attorney General Geoff Plant announced he would join 14 other BC Liberal MLAs who have announced they will not be seeking re-election. In addition, two MLAs have resigned from the Liberal caucus and three MLAs have resigned from the Legislature altogether.

Some political observers have suggested that the exodus of so many incumbents points to the BC Liberals running one too many candidates in the upcoming May 17 election, namely Premier Gordon Campbell. For most of the past four years, the Premier has consistently polled well below his party in public opinion surveys, which is the basis for the NDP's tiresome habit of referring to the governing party as the “Campbell Liberals.”

However, when the “Campbell Liberals” were elected in their 2001 landslide, the gap between support for the party and public approval of Campbell's leadership was over 15% in the red. The most recent polls show only a negligible deficit between approval for him and support for the party, making Campbell himself much less of a target this time around.

So why are the BC Liberals going into an election short 20 incumbents out of the 77 MLAs they swept into the house last election? Twenty may sound like a large number but—risking the ire of NDP political pundits everywhere—it's likely more a product of the size of the gargantuan government caucus than any abnormally large squabble within it. The ratio of 7 out of 10 sitting BC Liberal MLAs running for re-election is on par with other governments in the modern era of BC politics, with the notable exception of the last NDP government, which had an understandably hard time rallying the troops for a certain defeat.

Incumbency helps but it's not everything. Elections are about two things: vision and competence. On the first front, the BC Liberal team has a head start that's growing every day. It's not a vision I personally agree with, but like the vision that led to George Bush's election down south, it's simple and relatively well communicated. I say “relatively” because their NDP challengers haven't provided an alternate vision by which to judge. As a result, even before the budget was released, the BC Liberals had re-gained the lead in public opinion polls. $32.4 billion worth of unanswered election promises are likely to put them even further ahead.

On the issue of competence, the two parties are running a little closer. The fact that we won't officially have a provincial operating budget for many months after the current one runs out at fiscal year end on March 31, 2005, is a case in point. Not officially debating and passing a budget before going to the polls is a strange thing to do for a government that prides itself on accountability. The only other government to try it in recent memory was…the BC NDP in 2001. You can see how this would make it difficult for the NDP to demand the current government act responsibly.

A week really is a lifetime in politics so there's still plenty of time for things to get interesting in a good way, though the departure of Clark and MacPhail means it probably won't be as colorful. One thing that is for sure: with 60 days left to go to BC's first fixed election date, the election itself will feel like a lifetime for most British Columbians.

Liberals Not Running

John Wilson, Cariboo North; Reni Masi, Delta North; John Weisbeck, Kelowna-Lake Country; Lynn Stephens, Langley; Brian Kerr, Malahat-Juan de Fuca; Judith Reid, Nanaimo-Parksville; Karn Manhas, Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain; Christy Clark, Port Moody-Westwood; Harold Long, Powell River-Sunshine Coast; Greg Halsey-Brandt, Richmond Centre; Geoff Plant, Richmond-Steveston; Val Anderson, Vancouver-Langara; Ted Nebbeling, West Vancouver-Garibaldi; and Dave Chutter, Yale-Lillooet

Liberals Already Resigned Seat

Gulzar Cheema, Surrey-Panorama Ridge; Gary Collins, Vancouver-Fairview; Sandi Santori, West Kootenay-Boundary

Liberals Resigned From Caucus

Paul Nettleton, Prince George-Omineca; Elayne Brenzinger, Surrey-Whalley

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